* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP112020 08/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 31 25 21 20 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 31 25 21 20 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 31 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 13 15 9 4 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 -1 -1 -2 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 272 252 256 274 292 269 251 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.1 23.5 22.6 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 106 99 90 85 86 87 90 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 53 50 48 45 38 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 11 0 -20 -30 -23 -38 -17 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 24 13 0 -16 -22 0 -29 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 6 7 11 7 7 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 892 921 977 1084 1202 1398 1556 1731 1936 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.4 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.0 23.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.9 123.3 124.8 126.3 128.6 130.8 132.8 134.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -14. -15. -18. -18. -18. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.5 120.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 FAUSTO 08/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 FAUSTO 08/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##