* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 07/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 36 40 46 46 44 38 35 34 31 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 36 40 46 46 44 38 35 34 31 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 31 30 28 24 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 21 18 15 15 7 8 5 16 20 21 19 9 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 6 7 4 0 7 0 2 1 4 1 5 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 40 41 41 35 31 37 43 356 237 218 222 203 205 211 267 300 312 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.4 24.7 23.2 23.1 23.2 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 156 154 146 130 113 97 96 96 88 89 92 92 91 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 77 76 75 72 69 66 61 58 56 55 53 50 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 9 7 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -9 -2 9 14 29 36 34 29 58 74 105 95 72 24 24 8 200 MB DIV 90 83 83 49 32 67 75 30 46 58 44 57 36 22 -1 -6 6 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -10 -7 -2 -11 -14 -17 -4 -5 1 -6 -5 -4 1 8 2 LAND (KM) 596 605 637 694 725 736 841 1032 1246 1544 1883 2048 1830 1715 1662 1605 1547 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.8 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.3 21.3 20.7 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.1 109.3 110.5 111.8 114.5 117.4 120.9 124.7 128.5 132.2 135.2 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 14 16 18 18 18 16 13 8 3 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 17 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. 20. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. -3. -7. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 15. 21. 21. 19. 13. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 17.2% 4.7% 2.6% 0.4% 4.7% 2.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 12.4% 6.3% 0.9% 0.1% 6.1% 5.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##