* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 07/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 26 29 34 38 37 34 32 31 31 29 27 23 20 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 26 29 34 38 37 34 32 31 31 29 27 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 25 24 18 20 23 27 17 13 19 13 16 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 2 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 26 37 38 37 31 5 33 42 41 82 107 119 134 116 122 120 110 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.5 27.3 26.1 25.0 24.8 23.7 23.4 24.1 22.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 148 149 154 155 151 150 137 124 112 110 99 96 103 90 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 76 75 68 71 67 67 65 68 60 60 51 48 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -38 -29 -32 -35 -44 -19 -23 -16 -13 -21 -29 -44 -44 -45 -63 -61 200 MB DIV 68 83 90 81 71 75 79 53 25 25 35 10 24 0 -6 5 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -6 -6 -4 -7 -14 -9 -5 -1 8 10 10 10 9 7 LAND (KM) 725 747 765 779 783 848 830 863 906 930 1025 1126 1213 1356 1524 1697 1870 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 15.0 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.5 111.5 113.5 115.5 117.3 118.9 120.6 122.2 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 14 14 22 43 17 14 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 9. 14. 18. 17. 14. 12. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 105.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 3.3% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##