* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 07/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 36 43 43 41 39 37 36 35 34 31 29 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 36 43 43 41 39 37 36 35 34 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 26 28 24 27 19 21 20 28 23 16 14 14 17 15 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 4 8 10 0 9 5 2 1 2 -2 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 12 27 42 41 39 23 18 28 36 51 87 99 115 100 135 160 176 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.1 28.2 28.6 26.4 26.1 25.3 25.4 24.6 25.2 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 148 150 155 156 147 150 127 124 115 116 108 114 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 76 72 71 67 67 67 67 66 65 60 58 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 9 9 11 11 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -53 -41 -30 -27 -21 -27 -26 -19 -13 -13 -43 -71 -62 -55 -47 -16 200 MB DIV 76 76 90 106 81 66 90 66 31 24 10 18 25 10 -7 -13 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -2 -7 -12 -16 -6 -3 8 11 10 13 16 11 LAND (KM) 701 727 733 743 756 776 825 808 874 901 983 1106 1251 1402 1574 1742 1919 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.6 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.5 106.6 107.6 108.6 110.3 112.3 114.2 116.2 117.8 119.4 121.1 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 14 15 25 31 17 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 23. 23. 21. 20. 17. 16. 15. 14. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 104.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##