* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP912021 05/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 49 57 62 63 63 58 54 49 45 41 37 31 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 49 57 62 63 63 58 54 49 45 41 37 31 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 48 50 47 41 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 4 2 4 15 15 11 12 11 11 12 10 14 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 5 4 9 11 9 14 15 6 6 6 7 3 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 13 69 18 22 61 285 281 281 256 234 219 260 283 242 224 229 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 163 163 163 159 159 153 146 141 140 138 133 125 119 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 71 70 69 70 69 65 59 55 50 47 43 36 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -24 -21 -28 -24 -30 -33 -18 -4 9 16 24 24 24 22 6 200 MB DIV 48 83 109 104 128 98 53 72 64 70 -24 -20 -21 16 -7 -27 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -7 -7 -4 -4 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 743 748 739 756 786 841 923 1001 1010 1014 1036 1033 1012 1014 1044 1062 1022 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 3 5 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 56 45 32 37 56 30 19 14 11 11 10 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 27. 32. 33. 33. 28. 24. 19. 15. 11. 7. 1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 TWO 05/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 43.4% 35.8% 25.2% 0.0% 54.6% 53.3% 47.4% Logistic: 4.0% 27.9% 17.0% 8.3% 0.6% 20.4% 5.8% 4.6% Bayesian: 6.9% 5.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% Consensus: 7.8% 25.5% 18.7% 11.4% 0.2% 25.1% 19.9% 17.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 4.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 TWO 05/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##