* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 05/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 56 60 61 63 65 68 66 65 63 58 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 56 60 61 63 65 68 66 65 63 58 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 43 46 45 43 41 38 37 38 39 38 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 6 2 5 10 13 10 6 4 2 7 5 11 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 4 0 3 6 5 11 3 0 0 1 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 15 27 90 88 172 299 298 291 295 266 62 69 333 233 208 199 204 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.1 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 163 161 161 159 155 155 154 153 153 153 156 155 144 129 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 71 72 71 72 70 70 68 66 66 66 69 66 59 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 13 12 14 16 16 15 16 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -21 -15 -22 -21 -32 -35 -31 -14 -1 9 -5 -4 -9 -4 -7 200 MB DIV 44 52 61 76 80 100 87 81 81 76 44 20 -8 42 53 36 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 774 794 807 840 876 926 974 1001 1009 1016 1024 1001 970 890 779 628 500 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.9 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.7 105.7 106.8 107.8 109.6 110.9 111.7 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.5 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 50 44 36 47 61 33 25 23 23 23 25 26 22 10 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 26. 30. 31. 33. 35. 38. 36. 35. 33. 28. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 103.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 27.7% 23.4% 22.7% 0.0% 34.6% 44.0% 44.9% Logistic: 7.2% 44.9% 26.6% 16.3% 1.6% 23.0% 10.6% 14.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 9.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 4.5% 0.3% Consensus: 6.7% 27.4% 17.6% 13.3% 0.6% 19.4% 19.7% 19.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##