* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 05/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 47 50 50 48 46 46 43 42 37 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 47 50 50 48 46 46 43 42 37 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 32 32 30 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 15 13 15 14 13 16 18 22 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 7 7 4 0 5 2 7 0 2 5 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 346 336 339 14 29 321 325 277 277 246 242 231 236 243 218 218 219 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.2 26.7 25.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 162 164 161 159 156 156 155 154 152 144 135 130 112 92 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 69 70 73 74 76 72 70 66 64 64 64 61 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -26 -30 -27 -30 -29 -29 -37 -33 -17 -5 1 -5 -2 -4 -1 -1 200 MB DIV 34 37 56 83 95 82 97 37 49 44 76 -13 18 34 62 41 35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -8 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 761 791 815 850 859 895 911 926 931 940 957 972 943 859 731 585 449 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.1 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.4 103.4 104.6 105.7 107.8 109.5 110.7 111.3 111.6 111.9 112.4 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 10 8 5 3 2 2 4 5 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 27 35 41 48 61 41 30 26 23 18 12 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 25. 23. 21. 21. 18. 17. 12. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 101.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 38.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 30.8% 53.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 31.1% 14.9% 9.4% 0.7% 19.5% 15.5% 26.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 23.7% 12.9% 3.2% 0.2% 16.8% 22.9% 9.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##