* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 05/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 48 48 48 46 45 43 42 35 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 48 48 48 46 45 43 42 35 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 5 4 7 16 14 14 12 12 15 18 21 34 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 6 6 9 5 0 4 3 4 3 -1 2 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 357 342 335 320 336 340 300 288 280 279 258 267 251 258 216 211 217 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.9 27.9 26.0 24.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 160 162 161 157 156 156 154 154 151 142 123 111 87 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 70 72 71 75 71 69 67 63 64 63 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -28 -28 -25 -26 -22 -33 -33 -27 -15 -6 -3 6 10 26 17 200 MB DIV 25 44 64 80 111 96 116 70 29 54 46 13 -24 0 64 80 47 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -8 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 740 758 788 812 845 864 884 892 893 900 893 895 887 818 658 467 249 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.2 102.1 103.1 104.3 106.5 108.4 109.8 110.7 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 9 7 3 2 1 2 4 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 25 31 38 57 56 43 33 28 24 17 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 10. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 100.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 45.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 15.5% 6.3% 3.2% 0.3% 7.5% 3.5% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 13.4% 8.9% 1.1% 0.1% 9.6% 16.3% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##