* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 31 33 36 38 41 43 46 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 31 33 36 38 41 43 46 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 19 18 19 17 13 12 10 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 47 50 55 53 54 62 84 67 84 86 116 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 140 138 138 140 141 141 142 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 55 54 59 59 58 54 53 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -19 -20 -19 -36 -46 -33 -19 1 22 39 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -18 -14 -25 -12 -8 0 14 13 -24 -39 -26 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2320 2292 2265 2241 2217 2159 2122 2103 2044 2013 2016 1980 1917 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.1 134.3 134.5 134.7 135.3 135.7 136.0 136.7 137.1 137.2 137.7 138.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 16. 17. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 133.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##