* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 29 29 31 34 36 38 38 42 41 43 44 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 29 29 31 34 36 38 38 42 41 43 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 25 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 21 21 19 18 18 18 16 11 5 4 2 9 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 2 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 54 57 57 66 72 78 81 80 81 65 158 112 134 97 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 143 142 141 140 140 141 141 140 139 139 140 139 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 53 53 54 54 58 58 56 51 51 51 49 48 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 4 -11 -12 -32 -34 -19 -1 21 37 47 58 80 90 94 78 200 MB DIV -9 -1 -3 -8 -17 -11 -1 3 29 31 -21 -38 2 -28 -14 5 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2350 2332 2314 2294 2275 2231 2183 2169 2140 2097 2060 2059 2091 2117 2143 2179 2272 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 133.9 134.0 134.1 134.2 134.6 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.1 136.5 136.6 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 12. 11. 13. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 133.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##