* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 27 29 31 33 34 38 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 27 29 31 33 34 38 39 40 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 27 24 21 21 18 16 18 17 11 8 5 2 3 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -5 -6 -3 0 1 3 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 55 55 59 54 60 51 64 82 96 91 93 29 2 199 174 124 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 142 142 141 140 140 139 140 140 141 139 139 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 53 55 54 55 58 58 55 53 50 50 47 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 13 7 -11 -13 -33 -37 -16 6 22 41 54 74 94 97 76 200 MB DIV -12 -18 -14 -6 -17 -27 -1 -19 11 25 -12 -30 -30 -20 0 1 0 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2364 2341 2319 2299 2279 2227 2179 2125 2063 2027 2014 2000 1972 1972 1994 1990 1972 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.5 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.7 133.9 134.1 134.2 134.3 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.2 136.6 136.8 137.1 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 133.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##