* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 26 28 32 33 34 35 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 26 28 32 33 34 35 37 39 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 26 26 23 22 19 17 15 15 15 13 7 4 2 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 3 3 10 9 SHEAR DIR 42 46 58 61 62 59 54 60 74 83 88 94 93 54 118 178 165 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 140 141 141 140 138 137 137 136 136 136 136 135 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 56 55 53 54 52 56 55 56 52 50 47 47 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 18 15 8 -7 -20 -24 -16 -10 20 29 54 70 98 102 92 200 MB DIV -9 -19 -19 -12 -18 -31 -22 0 21 24 19 -9 -24 -26 -11 14 5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2362 2351 2339 2322 2305 2245 2193 2121 2053 2022 1999 1988 1954 1942 1929 1913 1879 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 133.8 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.6 135.0 135.6 136.2 136.5 136.8 136.9 137.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 133.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##