* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 28 31 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 23 23 22 23 24 24 25 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 26 27 24 21 17 15 15 14 14 14 14 6 8 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -5 -5 -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 50 56 47 50 58 68 59 43 67 81 94 97 114 122 140 195 208 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 141 142 141 139 137 136 136 138 136 134 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 61 59 57 54 54 52 52 51 55 56 56 54 56 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 26 19 21 15 6 -6 -21 -28 -19 0 28 38 58 73 87 94 200 MB DIV 3 9 -4 -15 -25 -24 -24 -11 5 12 4 -2 -8 -28 -4 2 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 3 0 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2420 2403 2386 2371 2356 2290 2254 2189 2121 2090 2083 2053 1971 1951 1971 1940 1869 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 133.2 133.4 133.5 133.7 134.2 134.4 134.9 135.5 135.8 135.9 136.2 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 2 0 0 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 133.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##