* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 29 30 31 33 34 38 37 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 29 30 31 33 34 38 37 38 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 29 29 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 21 27 29 22 16 16 14 11 13 14 11 12 7 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -5 -8 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -5 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 53 55 54 47 48 61 60 52 38 57 64 100 119 130 120 115 32 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 140 141 139 138 136 136 138 136 135 135 135 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 58 54 54 51 51 50 52 54 51 49 45 44 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 27 24 16 19 -2 -1 -9 -7 -16 -1 14 31 48 65 73 200 MB DIV 6 7 16 12 1 -18 -30 -34 7 48 24 4 -10 -11 -10 -8 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2424 2427 2397 2376 2356 2321 2255 2183 2104 2066 2042 2001 1933 1900 1877 1845 1807 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.0 133.3 133.5 133.7 134.0 134.5 135.0 135.7 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 11 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 7. 8. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 132.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##