* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 34 32 33 33 33 35 36 37 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 34 32 33 33 33 35 36 37 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 29 31 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 17 19 23 20 17 14 10 10 15 13 8 8 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 76 71 69 68 61 56 51 46 55 30 24 40 71 83 90 72 36 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 138 139 139 139 140 137 135 134 135 132 133 132 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 54 56 53 52 51 52 52 51 53 50 46 43 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 16 20 32 33 30 11 6 -11 -10 -21 -7 5 11 29 53 200 MB DIV 41 22 29 26 37 9 -14 -14 0 18 22 -4 -1 14 3 17 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2276 2311 2346 2381 2416 2378 2337 2302 2275 2248 2220 2200 2169 2139 2104 2107 2139 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.1 14.6 14.8 14.7 14.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.3 131.7 132.1 132.4 132.7 133.3 133.7 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.5 134.7 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 131.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.11 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.5% 11.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.6% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##