* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 30 30 27 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 30 30 27 24 24 23 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 5 4 2 9 13 19 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 1 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 138 226 279 345 21 294 302 284 270 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 126 122 114 106 98 101 101 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 67 65 67 65 59 51 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 77 83 76 61 38 20 7 2 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 83 69 46 32 9 0 -13 -8 10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2111 2073 2036 1982 1928 1802 1668 1508 1298 1134 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 135.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.3% 6.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##