* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 34 37 36 36 36 33 31 29 28 24 22 19 16 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 34 37 36 36 36 33 31 29 28 24 22 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 30 28 25 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 9 4 3 4 3 8 8 8 7 7 13 24 34 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 -5 -4 0 1 1 3 7 0 4 4 3 3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 63 59 31 23 28 198 255 280 309 322 315 308 276 250 269 276 282 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.0 25.0 24.3 24.0 24.1 24.5 24.3 24.6 25.3 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 133 133 130 122 112 105 101 103 107 105 108 116 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 66 66 64 66 63 63 58 54 48 40 34 31 33 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 45 49 46 76 58 61 47 55 42 39 32 18 1 -8 -7 200 MB DIV 29 24 31 25 43 66 35 3 -7 -19 -27 -22 -7 -28 -7 -6 -29 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 2 3 4 -1 LAND (KM) 2351 2294 2238 2188 2138 2036 1895 1728 1567 1410 1252 1078 895 693 482 283 114 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 133.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.88 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.1% 12.1% 10.9% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 0.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##