* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 43 44 44 40 37 33 29 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 42 43 44 44 40 37 33 29 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 34 32 28 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 7 5 4 1 4 9 7 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 2 0 1 3 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 76 75 69 48 65 317 331 313 357 356 347 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.3 23.5 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 132 131 127 124 117 111 104 96 98 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 64 64 64 64 65 64 62 60 54 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 15 17 15 16 16 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 46 57 52 65 69 50 42 31 30 18 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 48 44 35 34 32 37 4 8 5 -20 -18 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2385 2331 2278 2239 2200 2106 2016 1907 1779 1663 1539 1386 1203 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 5 4 6 6 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 13. 14. 14. 10. 7. 3. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 133.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.9% 13.0% 11.4% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.6% 4.7% 3.9% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##