* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 54 58 57 57 56 53 47 41 37 33 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 54 58 57 57 56 53 47 41 37 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 45 44 42 40 36 30 24 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 13 10 9 8 4 7 10 9 13 16 13 3 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -8 -4 -1 -7 -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 86 54 56 76 79 70 82 351 16 9 354 341 338 334 321 286 276 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.5 22.9 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 135 133 131 128 127 123 115 106 90 88 88 91 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 62 63 67 69 68 68 70 68 68 65 58 50 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 50 41 45 52 50 58 72 58 47 17 3 -4 -7 -1 -5 -19 200 MB DIV 103 80 60 58 54 46 36 24 23 30 0 -11 13 7 6 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 8 4 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2417 2455 2403 2355 2327 2275 2220 2173 2103 2045 1984 1921 1832 1736 1616 1505 1390 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.9 18.0 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.6 133.2 133.6 133.8 134.2 134.6 134.9 135.4 135.8 136.2 136.6 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 7 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 11 8 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 20. 17. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 24. 28. 27. 27. 26. 23. 17. 11. 7. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 131.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.2% 16.1% 14.8% 0.0% 14.8% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 8.2% 5.4% 1.1% 2.3% 0.6% 1.2% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.0% 7.2% 5.3% 0.8% 5.1% 4.8% 2.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##