* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 44 50 55 54 53 50 46 41 35 30 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 44 50 55 54 53 50 46 41 35 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 32 30 27 24 21 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 11 11 12 16 13 6 7 4 6 10 8 16 21 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 4 3 2 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 82 92 66 63 72 69 87 30 139 152 201 227 234 240 246 248 253 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.6 23.9 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 137 135 133 131 129 124 108 101 91 95 98 102 104 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 55 58 63 63 64 69 68 62 56 45 35 26 23 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 12 13 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 84 91 94 93 91 91 79 58 42 45 31 38 32 11 -14 200 MB DIV 46 55 59 64 65 59 65 48 18 -9 0 2 -6 -4 -14 2 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -4 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2164 2207 2246 2268 2293 2307 2308 2305 2260 2211 2044 1871 1694 1453 1192 994 858 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 9 9 8 9 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 8 9 11 16 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 30. 29. 28. 25. 21. 16. 10. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 128.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.4% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 4.1% 3.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##