* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 84 80 73 60 46 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 84 80 73 60 46 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 81 74 67 52 40 32 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 10 10 7 9 12 17 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 5 6 2 1 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 296 219 210 230 189 203 185 197 197 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.2 22.8 22.2 22.2 21.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 122 116 111 105 93 88 82 82 78 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 54 56 48 42 35 30 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 19 16 13 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 -4 -10 -22 -22 3 -1 4 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -16 -2 6 -6 3 11 -11 18 3 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 8 10 4 1 2 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 441 489 541 597 647 677 703 795 821 782 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.5 26.1 27.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.7 115.9 117.0 118.0 119.7 120.7 121.6 122.8 123.7 124.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -26. -33. -38. -44. -48. -51. -54. -57. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -12. -25. -39. -51. -63. -71. -83. -87. -89. -92. -94. -96. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.1 113.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##