* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 82 79 71 60 49 38 28 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 82 79 71 60 49 38 28 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 82 80 75 63 51 40 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 6 9 11 10 10 17 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -1 1 1 4 0 1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 313 276 245 217 231 202 195 194 217 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 26.4 25.6 25.4 24.3 23.9 23.5 22.9 22.6 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 129 120 118 106 100 96 90 85 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 58 57 54 47 44 35 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 21 20 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 20 12 0 -8 -16 13 19 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 21 7 -16 -2 6 4 14 -9 9 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -2 -2 1 5 9 11 4 5 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 378 409 475 497 551 683 759 840 958 1034 1087 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.5 24.0 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.6 118.8 120.6 121.9 123.6 124.6 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 7 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 5. -4. -15. -26. -37. -47. -56. -58. -59. -61. -62. -63. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.8 111.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 27.8% 21.2% 17.9% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 6.1% 5.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 11.3% 9.0% 6.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##