* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 73 75 73 65 54 43 34 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 73 75 73 65 54 43 34 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 69 69 65 56 46 37 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 4 2 5 10 16 16 18 20 13 9 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -1 2 0 1 2 0 -1 -3 0 2 1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 323 327 336 257 226 197 215 209 195 198 215 243 319 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.4 27.8 26.3 25.2 24.7 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.4 24.3 24.2 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 150 150 143 127 115 110 101 101 101 96 105 104 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 63 62 59 57 53 48 44 38 33 33 31 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 21 21 20 18 15 11 10 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 29 38 31 5 2 -7 8 19 37 19 37 17 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 26 36 37 37 16 16 15 14 23 13 -3 -8 -11 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -9 -11 -12 1 4 15 9 10 7 8 4 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 443 430 443 500 623 758 882 971 1114 1281 1453 1644 1814 1991 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.1 21.6 21.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.5 110.8 112.2 113.5 116.2 118.6 120.6 122.4 124.1 125.7 127.4 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 10 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -8. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 18. 10. -1. -12. -21. -31. -35. -40. -42. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.0 108.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 32.8% 30.0% 21.1% 16.0% 23.8% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 15.4% 7.7% 3.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 16.4% 12.6% 8.2% 6.1% 8.4% 6.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 27.0% 41.0% 31.0% 23.0% 16.0% 12.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##