* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 71 76 81 81 73 65 55 45 33 26 19 17 17 17 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 71 76 81 81 73 65 55 45 33 26 19 17 17 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 75 78 75 65 54 44 35 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 10 4 4 3 9 13 13 17 19 15 13 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -1 0 1 3 2 0 -1 -4 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 315 321 310 297 267 199 183 196 206 195 214 217 233 288 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.4 26.6 25.9 25.0 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.5 23.5 24.2 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 153 150 150 131 123 113 104 101 100 97 97 104 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 63 62 61 59 57 52 49 43 39 35 34 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 20 22 21 19 18 14 11 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 18 23 39 11 3 -6 -8 14 28 21 29 22 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 28 24 34 40 4 20 5 18 32 -1 2 -5 3 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -10 -13 -6 6 8 13 6 7 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 352 431 429 436 577 671 830 912 1018 1163 1327 1517 1701 1901 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 108.1 109.4 110.7 112.1 114.7 117.3 119.6 121.4 123.0 124.6 126.3 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 15 12 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 26. 18. 10. -0. -10. -22. -29. -36. -38. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.5 106.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 33.0% 30.5% 21.8% 16.4% 25.3% 20.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 18.1% 8.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 17.9% 13.2% 8.7% 6.5% 9.4% 6.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 16.0% 32.0% 19.0% 16.0% 13.0% 25.0% 7.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##