* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 62 68 78 81 78 69 61 50 42 34 28 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 62 68 78 81 78 69 61 50 42 34 28 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 64 72 73 69 60 50 41 33 28 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 12 10 3 4 8 14 11 13 17 12 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 -1 -5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 0 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 315 329 329 328 281 258 165 193 209 178 196 229 222 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.8 28.5 27.8 26.4 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.4 24.1 23.8 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 160 154 151 143 128 117 110 103 106 102 99 110 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 71 69 68 65 61 58 57 55 50 46 41 39 36 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 15 16 18 20 20 17 15 11 9 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 18 12 19 37 -14 -6 -34 -14 5 43 44 63 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 25 23 11 27 32 4 3 20 32 26 14 0 6 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -10 -8 -9 -8 2 0 15 7 9 5 6 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 311 371 454 452 516 628 771 915 1039 1187 1332 1466 1644 1878 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.4 21.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.9 108.1 109.5 110.8 113.5 116.0 118.6 120.6 122.6 124.4 126.0 127.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 7 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 26 17 13 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 7. 5. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 33. 36. 33. 24. 16. 5. -3. -11. -17. -21. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 31.4% 27.8% 19.6% 15.1% 25.3% 23.3% 10.5% Logistic: 13.7% 32.1% 14.3% 8.1% 4.7% 11.0% 3.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 17.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 27.1% 14.8% 9.5% 6.9% 12.4% 8.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 12.0% 28.0% 16.0% 13.0% 9.0% 35.0% 24.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##