* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 57 69 77 83 81 73 65 52 43 34 29 24 22 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 57 69 77 83 81 73 65 52 43 34 29 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 59 67 72 69 60 50 40 32 27 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 8 6 6 8 16 20 22 25 18 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 3 1 1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 350 328 318 314 323 336 257 244 186 215 213 213 206 212 225 266 285 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.0 29.4 28.8 28.1 26.4 25.2 24.2 24.0 23.5 23.6 24.5 24.2 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 172 166 160 154 146 129 116 106 103 97 98 107 104 112 110 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 72 70 66 62 60 56 55 49 43 37 33 29 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 12 13 14 16 17 21 20 19 17 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 21 22 17 23 25 -3 -6 -6 25 47 64 65 59 44 49 200 MB DIV 64 49 43 46 42 37 50 20 34 12 20 11 -1 11 9 -9 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -7 -12 -11 -11 -1 -1 14 7 5 1 1 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 274 277 305 329 397 454 507 599 764 935 1121 1320 1499 1680 1879 2062 2074 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.4 21.8 22.0 21.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.7 105.9 107.2 108.4 110.9 113.6 116.1 118.8 121.5 124.1 126.3 128.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 34 28 18 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 17. 18. 16. 13. 7. 3. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 22. 34. 42. 48. 46. 38. 30. 17. 8. -1. -6. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 103.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.42 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 29.3% 27.4% 19.3% 14.8% 23.5% 22.7% 12.5% Logistic: 8.6% 36.3% 18.5% 10.7% 3.3% 15.7% 12.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 24.2% 7.3% 1.9% 0.7% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 29.9% 17.7% 10.6% 6.3% 14.3% 12.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 29.0% 14.0% 9.0% 5.0% 22.0% 24.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##