* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 30 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 14 12 12 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 310 330 329 333 304 258 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.8 23.4 23.6 23.0 22.0 22.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 101 96 99 93 82 83 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 65 65 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -27 -27 -18 -12 -22 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 30 36 12 14 20 -18 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -8 -8 -9 -10 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1636 1688 1744 1811 1883 1988 1876 1661 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.2 130.1 131.2 132.2 134.6 137.0 139.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -20. -24. -28. -30. -33. -35. -38. -42. -45. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 128.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##