* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 15 14 12 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 -1 -1 1 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 287 305 326 332 301 273 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.4 23.6 23.5 23.5 22.4 21.9 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 98 97 98 86 81 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 70 67 67 63 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -19 -24 -24 -6 -15 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 47 31 29 20 15 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -7 -10 -5 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1601 1653 1709 1764 1824 1929 1965 1757 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.8 22.4 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.6 129.5 130.5 131.4 133.6 136.1 138.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -30. -33. -35. -38. -40. -43. -45. -46. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 127.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/04/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##