* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 82 82 82 77 73 66 59 52 44 40 31 25 21 17 V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 82 82 82 77 73 66 59 52 44 40 31 25 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 82 83 84 81 77 70 60 50 44 39 34 29 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 13 18 14 19 8 4 5 10 12 11 12 21 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 0 0 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 68 53 66 77 56 68 53 2 307 283 276 290 280 249 259 243 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.8 23.5 24.0 23.3 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 136 136 129 124 116 111 97 102 94 88 88 92 101 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 75 73 73 72 73 71 68 71 70 70 65 56 43 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 19 19 20 20 21 20 18 17 14 15 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 48 52 65 89 78 66 46 21 34 6 7 5 18 16 15 200 MB DIV 80 70 72 88 105 130 84 35 50 57 48 45 35 7 8 7 8 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -9 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -11 -2 -17 -19 1 -2 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1353 1394 1429 1458 1491 1538 1580 1606 1637 1728 1881 2030 2090 1851 1568 1333 1158 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.7 122.5 123.7 124.8 126.1 127.7 129.5 131.5 133.3 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 9 12 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 6 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -31. -35. -44. -50. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.4 119.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 20.2% 17.6% 16.6% 10.1% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 8.4% 3.0% 1.5% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 9.6% 6.9% 6.1% 4.4% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 22.0% 17.0% 14.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##