* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 43 46 47 49 50 48 48 47 48 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 43 46 47 49 50 48 48 47 48 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 35 36 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 19 17 17 14 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 205 213 210 202 199 151 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 145 147 151 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 42 44 49 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -65 -72 -72 -73 -76 -87 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 9 -3 2 5 -10 8 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 0 4 4 2 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1040 1239 1439 1642 1845 2254 2656 2764 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.4 27.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.0 172.0 173.9 175.9 177.9 181.9 185.8 189.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 14 11 9 14 12 13 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 8. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.5 170.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##