* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 40 38 38 40 41 42 42 40 38 37 35 33 32 29 29 V (KT) LAND 50 44 40 38 38 40 41 42 42 40 38 37 35 33 32 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 43 38 34 32 30 29 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 21 23 24 18 18 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 196 194 193 203 220 213 198 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 145 147 150 151 151 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 37 38 41 46 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -41 -54 -54 -59 -61 -69 -68 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 12 8 16 5 5 -2 -4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 6 5 3 4 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 423 583 745 939 1134 1553 1990 2410 2828 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.2 24.5 25.3 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.1 165.7 167.3 169.2 171.1 175.2 179.5 183.6 187.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 19 25 23 15 19 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.2 164.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##