* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 48 44 44 44 47 47 47 45 43 42 40 38 36 32 31 V (KT) LAND 60 53 48 44 44 44 47 47 47 45 43 42 40 38 36 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 60 53 48 44 42 39 39 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 21 23 23 19 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 1 0 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 201 198 194 193 218 212 211 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 144 147 150 150 149 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 38 40 40 41 44 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -27 -35 -46 -50 -67 -69 -72 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 31 23 24 21 0 8 -5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 3 -1 2 5 2 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 482 680 880 1080 1458 1840 2247 2652 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.6 25.0 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.8 164.8 166.7 168.7 170.6 174.3 178.0 182.0 186.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 17 23 24 18 19 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -16. -16. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -22. -24. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.9 162.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 552.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##