* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 70 66 62 59 58 55 54 49 48 46 43 41 38 38 V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 70 66 62 59 58 55 54 49 48 46 43 41 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 73 69 62 57 55 54 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 23 21 22 22 23 20 14 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 0 4 3 2 0 0 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 214 207 203 204 203 228 223 199 154 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 140 140 142 145 150 149 150 150 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 36 37 39 40 40 44 46 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 10 7 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -40 -36 -27 -44 -62 -68 -63 -68 -69 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 28 27 12 18 -1 9 -11 29 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 7 2 3 6 3 1 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 165 325 499 677 1030 1391 1789 2148 2537 2934 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.6 25.2 26.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.6 161.3 163.0 164.8 166.5 170.0 173.6 177.5 181.0 184.8 188.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 15 11 14 26 18 17 15 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -25. -26. -31. -32. -34. -37. -39. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.7 159.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 773.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##