* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 64 59 55 52 52 48 49 47 46 44 41 38 35 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 64 59 55 52 52 48 49 47 46 44 41 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 65 62 56 50 46 45 45 45 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 25 21 21 20 24 24 19 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 6 -2 2 4 5 0 0 1 4 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 201 204 202 197 200 206 226 218 210 168 125 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 138 134 131 138 141 147 149 151 149 152 152 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 36 35 38 38 39 43 46 46 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 13 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -25 -32 -37 -38 -54 -60 -60 -61 -58 -69 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 44 27 31 33 13 23 0 0 -2 33 -8 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -6 -3 4 7 1 2 -1 0 0 2 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 39 31 136 284 619 963 1341 1767 2162 2518 2874 2636 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.5 158.0 159.5 161.0 162.6 166.0 169.4 173.1 177.3 181.2 184.7 188.2 191.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 13 8 4 15 12 26 18 18 16 22 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -17. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -20. -23. -23. -27. -26. -28. -29. -31. -34. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.6 156.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 730.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##