* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 68 64 60 58 57 54 51 48 46 46 43 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 68 58 61 59 58 55 52 49 47 47 43 41 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 71 68 63 60 57 53 50 48 47 48 49 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 17 21 18 16 13 18 18 19 20 16 17 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 9 3 3 5 7 5 5 6 4 4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 206 192 191 203 189 191 172 201 202 221 241 266 341 335 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 133 137 137 136 140 144 148 149 151 150 149 148 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 38 38 36 36 35 35 34 38 39 40 45 50 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 10 8 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -16 -16 -24 -30 -28 -38 -46 -51 -44 -53 -49 -75 -79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 29 39 41 22 27 18 40 9 -1 -5 0 -18 28 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 0 -12 -6 9 0 4 1 -4 0 2 4 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 164 95 30 2 -7 218 544 871 1209 1581 1975 2363 2744 2787 2472 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.0 23.8 24.3 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.6 155.1 156.6 158.0 159.4 162.1 165.3 168.5 171.8 175.5 179.4 183.2 186.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 4 8 13 12 12 11 24 19 16 20 16 13 15 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -34. -37. -40. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.5 153.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 767.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.04 -0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 14.1% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##