* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 69 65 61 57 54 51 49 43 41 40 39 36 35 31 30 V (KT) LAND 80 74 69 65 61 57 54 51 49 43 41 40 39 36 35 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 70 66 63 58 54 51 47 44 41 40 38 39 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 17 15 19 22 19 21 24 23 19 16 16 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 4 6 1 6 6 7 7 8 6 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 206 218 207 197 201 192 200 195 215 216 228 239 312 346 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.8 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.6 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 124 126 133 137 136 140 145 147 146 146 146 152 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 43 41 39 37 36 38 40 40 43 44 45 48 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 16 16 14 14 13 12 11 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -15 -10 -8 -19 -25 -20 -42 -53 -57 -45 -56 -57 -76 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 22 24 15 21 16 23 14 14 -2 14 4 0 10 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 9 7 -2 0 7 1 2 1 -2 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 428 291 187 119 57 27 206 550 911 1247 1572 1901 2225 2533 2831 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.4 26.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 159.1 161.9 165.3 168.8 172.1 175.3 178.5 181.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 7 12 10 10 21 16 12 12 13 14 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -37. -39. -40. -41. -44. -45. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.7 150.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 702.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##