* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 77 71 66 61 57 52 50 50 44 41 38 35 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 90 83 77 71 66 61 57 52 50 50 44 41 38 35 34 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 77 71 67 61 58 55 53 51 49 45 40 37 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 13 16 18 20 20 19 21 27 29 24 18 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 4 3 2 6 11 9 10 7 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 206 198 205 219 208 205 201 208 192 201 199 221 235 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.9 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 120 120 124 133 139 140 140 146 148 145 147 148 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 46 42 38 38 37 39 40 43 46 44 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 16 16 15 14 13 14 11 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -10 -10 -12 -6 -12 -15 -24 -28 -42 -41 -44 -53 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 7 21 15 17 20 12 9 10 30 17 7 1 7 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 5 6 1 3 0 2 0 4 -3 -2 1 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 760 602 450 302 187 50 0 247 598 951 1311 1650 1958 2271 2591 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 149.1 150.5 152.0 153.5 156.3 159.3 162.5 165.9 169.3 172.8 176.1 179.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 12 14 11 21 17 11 14 15 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. -27. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -38. -40. -40. -46. -49. -52. -55. -56. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.7 147.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 744.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##