* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 78 74 64 58 52 47 46 42 38 34 31 30 24 21 V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 78 74 64 58 53 48 46 42 38 34 31 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 77 71 63 57 52 48 46 43 40 38 35 34 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 12 16 20 23 24 24 22 27 32 30 25 22 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 3 2 1 4 7 4 4 3 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 201 226 209 203 214 212 208 214 223 211 199 211 223 260 260 307 328 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.3 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 121 122 128 138 137 138 141 144 146 144 146 150 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 52 50 49 47 43 40 39 38 40 41 43 44 47 50 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 17 18 16 15 14 13 14 12 11 9 8 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -7 -8 -4 -3 -1 -10 -17 -31 -30 -36 -37 -34 -47 -57 -70 200 MB DIV 17 15 3 13 20 8 11 13 4 12 27 11 4 3 2 -7 26 700-850 TADV 0 6 8 7 5 7 -4 -3 4 4 -1 -1 -5 -5 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 946 763 585 430 291 119 12 83 436 802 1156 1474 1740 2085 2476 2787 2696 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 24.9 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.9 147.5 149.2 150.7 152.2 154.9 158.0 160.9 164.3 167.8 171.2 174.3 176.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 13 14 17 16 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 10 12 19 13 14 11 8 10 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -21. -31. -37. -43. -48. -49. -53. -57. -61. -64. -65. -71. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.2 145.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 725.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##