* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 96 91 85 75 68 61 57 55 52 52 50 52 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 105 100 96 91 85 75 68 61 58 55 53 53 51 52 51 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 91 83 77 66 59 54 52 50 50 49 49 49 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 7 9 8 16 17 20 16 18 18 23 25 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 2 4 7 10 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 253 158 200 230 221 233 227 243 222 226 216 223 218 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 121 119 120 121 125 131 139 140 139 140 147 152 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 57 56 51 46 43 40 39 40 41 42 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 21 20 18 18 16 17 17 16 16 13 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 4 5 0 -3 -5 -1 5 -4 -4 -25 -29 -20 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 44 12 13 6 0 19 17 20 17 17 28 23 23 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 3 5 5 9 5 4 4 3 2 3 -3 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1497 1318 1141 967 795 470 186 11 34 140 492 843 1192 1553 1925 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.1 142.7 144.2 145.8 147.3 150.3 153.2 155.9 158.5 161.6 165.0 168.4 171.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 18 15 13 15 14 26 19 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -43. -45. -45. -45. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -20. -30. -37. -44. -48. -50. -53. -53. -55. -53. -55. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 141.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 654.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##