* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 111 106 100 87 74 64 54 50 46 45 43 42 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 115 113 111 106 100 87 74 64 54 50 46 45 43 42 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 104 96 89 75 67 60 54 50 48 46 45 43 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 5 10 14 19 23 18 18 17 19 20 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 5 3 5 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 7 345 113 187 242 237 242 245 248 244 236 224 237 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.5 25.4 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 120 120 119 125 129 135 139 142 145 146 148 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 61 58 54 49 43 42 39 37 39 41 46 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 23 23 22 20 18 17 15 16 14 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 8 7 5 0 -1 -2 7 4 -7 -23 -41 -40 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 49 37 13 19 -8 5 2 -3 1 11 10 11 1 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 3 1 2 9 5 8 1 0 -1 0 4 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1688 1509 1331 1154 978 635 324 78 33 76 307 656 1037 1418 1809 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.5 141.0 142.6 144.2 145.7 148.8 151.7 154.5 157.3 160.2 163.2 166.6 170.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 14 14 15 17 17 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 14 16 16 14 23 25 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -22. -30. -37. -44. -49. -53. -55. -56. -55. -55. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -13. -15. -14. -16. -16. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -15. -28. -40. -51. -61. -65. -69. -70. -72. -73. -75. -76. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.3 139.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 670.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##