* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 114 111 107 93 82 71 61 55 50 48 47 47 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 115 117 114 111 107 93 82 71 61 55 50 48 47 47 46 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 106 99 91 78 68 61 54 50 47 47 46 45 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 2 2 3 2 8 9 19 21 23 16 20 19 22 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 4 3 5 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 72 18 21 81 261 246 244 244 255 247 244 232 236 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 128 128 126 121 120 124 128 133 139 140 142 143 147 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 61 61 54 50 45 41 39 36 38 42 48 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 23 23 23 19 19 17 15 15 13 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 18 13 8 -4 -2 0 5 7 -2 -3 -22 -26 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 54 34 40 23 8 5 7 5 -2 1 1 12 14 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 0 1 5 8 3 5 -3 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1866 1681 1497 1324 1152 791 461 154 4 95 170 502 883 1263 1655 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 139.6 141.2 142.7 144.2 147.4 150.4 153.4 156.2 159.0 161.8 165.1 168.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 15 16 17 17 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 7 22 13 16 13 16 28 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -20. -28. -36. -43. -48. -53. -55. -55. -55. -56. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -4. -8. -22. -33. -44. -54. -60. -65. -67. -67. -68. -69. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 138.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##