* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 106 103 93 82 74 63 54 51 46 47 44 42 40 39 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 106 103 93 82 74 63 54 51 46 46 44 41 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 105 98 91 79 71 64 57 52 49 47 46 44 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 1 1 3 8 13 18 25 22 23 27 30 27 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 2 4 5 6 10 4 4 SHEAR DIR 303 267 92 21 41 209 248 230 242 245 257 254 243 250 268 274 286 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.5 26.1 26.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 130 129 127 121 120 126 129 137 139 142 144 147 149 153 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 65 63 57 51 47 42 38 38 38 43 45 48 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 22 23 21 19 19 16 14 15 13 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 16 18 17 8 -2 1 1 6 7 -4 -14 -29 -18 -11 -1 200 MB DIV 8 36 47 30 34 28 4 5 7 -15 -14 4 12 14 9 8 9 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 1 1 3 4 3 5 0 4 0 6 -8 -9 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 2048 1856 1664 1485 1307 953 616 303 34 76 110 343 719 1109 1480 1819 2117 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.5 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.5 138.2 139.8 141.4 142.9 146.0 149.0 151.9 154.8 157.6 160.3 163.5 167.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 14 16 17 17 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 15 15 17 15 13 26 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -32. -38. -43. -47. -49. -50. -50. -50. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -3. -7. -11. -10. -12. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -4. -7. -17. -28. -36. -47. -56. -59. -64. -63. -66. -68. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.8 136.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 553.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##