* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 111 113 112 104 91 78 70 59 50 45 42 39 37 35 34 V (KT) LAND 100 108 111 113 112 104 91 78 70 59 50 45 42 39 37 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 100 109 112 110 105 91 78 69 60 51 45 41 39 37 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 1 1 2 5 9 13 19 24 26 26 26 27 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 4 3 -1 -4 -1 1 0 0 2 3 4 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 5 15 344 60 72 337 257 260 236 244 249 258 259 259 246 255 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.8 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.8 26.0 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 145 144 129 126 120 119 123 125 138 143 143 142 145 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 61 62 60 56 50 46 42 40 40 40 45 45 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 23 23 23 19 18 18 15 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 24 17 14 3 2 -2 -3 -6 -3 -5 -13 -22 -28 -22 -26 200 MB DIV 72 43 19 28 31 22 13 1 15 -2 -1 -2 -6 -3 2 16 19 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -2 2 4 3 8 8 7 7 6 2 -3 2 3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2412 2238 2065 1888 1712 1352 1012 667 355 88 38 121 384 710 1008 1336 1716 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.5 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.8 136.3 137.8 139.3 142.4 145.4 148.5 151.4 154.2 157.0 160.2 163.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 14 16 16 14 14 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 9 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 19 16 10 14 21 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -39. -40. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. -8. -12. -12. -13. -12. -13. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 13. 12. 4. -9. -22. -30. -41. -50. -55. -58. -61. -63. -65. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 12.8 133.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.91 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.6% 34.5% 30.1% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 10.5% 11.9% 8.0% 2.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.6% 15.1% 14.0% 10.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##