* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 89 92 97 100 95 85 74 62 54 48 44 41 39 35 33 V (KT) LAND 75 82 89 92 97 100 95 85 74 62 54 48 44 41 39 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 87 90 92 89 82 74 67 59 53 49 46 45 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 3 1 1 7 7 17 19 26 23 24 22 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 3 3 4 8 SHEAR DIR 1 1 359 3 12 49 245 275 240 253 253 259 265 252 245 251 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.9 26.1 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.7 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 144 145 127 118 121 120 124 132 144 142 143 143 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 65 63 63 59 53 50 45 41 40 40 43 44 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 21 22 22 21 20 19 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 41 31 18 10 5 3 -3 -3 -6 0 -4 -10 -21 -28 -20 200 MB DIV 79 90 53 19 19 36 8 22 17 8 -5 0 -9 -1 2 11 14 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -3 1 4 9 3 4 2 5 3 2 -1 0 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 2466 2417 2260 2080 1900 1548 1203 853 535 210 6 106 170 495 871 1198 1501 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.8 17.0 18.2 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 133.3 134.6 136.2 137.7 140.7 143.7 146.8 149.7 152.8 155.8 158.9 161.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 14 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 16 9 12 0 0 0 0 0 6 26 15 13 12 20 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 17. 22. 25. 20. 10. -1. -13. -21. -27. -31. -34. -36. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.3 131.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.44 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.9% 46.8% 42.7% 37.1% 30.8% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.7% 26.1% 20.8% 14.4% 5.4% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 38.8% 28.8% 17.0% 7.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.1% 33.9% 26.9% 19.7% 12.5% 10.6% 0.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 28.0% 36.0% 26.0% 26.0% 20.0% 13.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##