* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 85 91 96 100 95 86 75 66 58 46 41 37 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 70 77 85 91 96 100 95 86 75 66 58 48 43 39 37 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 83 88 91 91 84 75 67 60 53 46 41 39 37 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 8 8 11 17 21 28 29 27 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -4 0 -1 0 1 1 3 5 3 11 SHEAR DIR 319 10 33 29 28 52 307 266 275 255 257 254 261 265 266 266 281 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.4 26.1 25.3 25.6 25.7 26.0 27.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 150 144 130 127 118 121 122 125 137 144 144 144 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 65 63 61 58 55 50 48 43 41 41 42 45 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 22 22 20 20 19 17 16 11 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 54 42 26 22 3 11 2 2 -2 -1 -4 -14 -15 -16 -21 200 MB DIV 67 89 96 49 19 36 10 13 -4 8 -3 3 -15 -7 0 -4 8 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 5 11 6 2 3 8 2 7 -7 0 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 2379 2443 2457 2289 2122 1769 1420 1079 743 422 125 60 149 340 710 1066 1400 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 15.3 16.6 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.6 132.9 134.3 135.7 138.7 141.7 144.7 147.8 150.8 153.6 156.6 159.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 25 17 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 11 26 18 11 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 26. 30. 25. 16. 5. -4. -12. -24. -29. -33. -35. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.9 130.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 11.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 7.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.0% 56.1% 51.0% 44.1% 34.9% 25.7% 19.3% 0.0% Logistic: 27.7% 37.4% 32.9% 23.8% 13.1% 8.3% 2.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 40.9% 35.7% 22.3% 12.2% 1.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.9% 43.1% 35.4% 26.7% 16.4% 11.9% 7.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 56.0% 55.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 33.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##