* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 80 87 95 94 87 75 63 54 46 39 34 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 80 87 95 94 87 75 63 54 46 40 36 32 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 71 75 80 81 76 69 62 54 48 42 38 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 5 2 4 8 11 15 17 23 26 30 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 307 323 353 9 17 39 9 315 280 259 270 262 254 258 256 248 261 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.7 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.0 27.2 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 151 143 121 121 118 119 123 125 138 144 143 143 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 69 66 64 60 58 52 49 45 43 40 40 45 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 20 20 18 15 14 13 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 51 46 38 17 7 2 0 -8 -10 -9 -6 -10 -13 -26 -24 200 MB DIV 58 60 73 85 41 15 15 4 20 2 -11 -7 2 -2 -9 11 14 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 2 2 0 8 4 0 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2285 2362 2429 2482 2332 1998 1654 1316 977 665 371 77 91 176 405 743 1064 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.6 16.0 17.0 18.2 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.1 131.3 132.6 133.9 136.7 139.6 142.6 145.6 148.5 151.3 154.1 156.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 16 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 20 26 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 23 16 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 35. 34. 27. 15. 3. -6. -14. -21. -26. -29. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.6 128.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -8.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.5% 66.2% 54.4% 46.3% 37.2% 30.2% 21.7% 9.1% Logistic: 42.1% 63.7% 52.5% 41.6% 24.0% 21.4% 2.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 23.0% 48.8% 35.9% 24.1% 2.3% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 32.2% 59.5% 47.6% 37.3% 21.2% 19.6% 8.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 40.0% 82.0% 78.0% 60.0% 50.0% 59.0% 13.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##