* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 70 74 85 86 82 73 65 57 51 43 40 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 70 74 85 86 82 73 65 57 51 39 41 38 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 62 64 70 73 70 65 58 52 47 41 37 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 3 5 3 2 8 7 10 13 15 20 25 29 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 327 313 317 323 30 360 350 337 300 278 266 264 259 260 256 253 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 27.8 26.8 25.8 24.7 25.3 25.4 25.9 26.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 152 144 134 123 112 117 118 124 128 140 142 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 69 68 63 61 58 54 51 49 45 41 40 40 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 21 20 20 18 18 16 16 12 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 53 59 58 49 45 21 14 -2 -5 -9 -2 -7 2 -8 -7 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 56 56 61 78 76 25 34 -3 2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -16 -9 -5 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 4 7 1 -2 5 6 3 11 2 2 0 0 -8 LAND (KM) 2143 2227 2315 2371 2425 2217 1869 1559 1223 918 644 338 -7 173 254 511 819 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.9 14.2 15.7 16.8 17.9 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.6 129.8 130.9 132.0 134.7 137.6 140.3 143.3 146.1 148.7 151.6 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 13 15 15 14 15 13 13 15 15 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 15 24 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 24 21 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -0. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 30. 31. 27. 18. 10. 2. -4. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.9 127.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -6.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 51.5% 39.9% 32.0% 21.6% 36.2% 23.4% 10.3% Logistic: 14.3% 41.7% 31.0% 20.1% 11.5% 14.9% 5.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.0% 4.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 34.7% 25.1% 18.1% 11.4% 17.6% 9.6% 3.9% DTOPS: 23.0% 53.0% 40.0% 26.0% 18.0% 36.0% 19.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##