* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 71 76 78 79 72 64 58 54 52 46 42 38 36 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 68 71 76 78 79 72 64 58 54 52 46 42 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 70 71 69 64 58 53 50 46 41 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 8 7 2 3 8 1 2 6 10 13 20 24 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 11 4 357 336 324 324 130 132 202 248 255 245 264 257 259 253 260 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 27.7 26.8 26.1 25.1 25.6 25.6 26.2 26.6 27.5 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 152 151 153 143 134 126 116 121 121 127 132 142 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 72 70 68 64 62 56 51 48 45 41 39 39 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 16 17 19 17 15 13 13 13 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 53 53 52 38 13 11 10 14 6 13 -3 1 -13 -19 -21 200 MB DIV 32 49 38 33 37 59 21 41 -16 -11 -7 -13 -15 -8 -3 2 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 6 7 5 -3 -2 0 5 5 7 5 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1922 2027 2135 2223 2315 2447 2165 1838 1495 1159 832 506 222 65 290 408 737 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.9 14.2 15.4 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.1 127.3 128.6 129.8 132.3 135.2 138.0 141.0 144.0 147.0 150.1 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 14 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 13 12 25 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 27 24 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 21. 23. 24. 17. 9. 3. -1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.2 124.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 47.5% 33.1% 22.1% 17.0% 27.5% 23.3% 10.3% Logistic: 16.9% 34.6% 25.5% 15.8% 9.2% 13.2% 5.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 16.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 10.1% 2.5% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 33.0% 20.9% 13.2% 8.9% 16.9% 10.4% 4.6% DTOPS: 19.0% 44.0% 37.0% 33.0% 26.0% 30.0% 15.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##