* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082020 07/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 47 52 59 63 64 63 64 60 56 52 48 47 44 43 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 47 52 59 63 64 63 64 60 56 52 48 47 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 56 56 52 49 44 40 36 32 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 13 14 13 14 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 44 44 23 10 11 315 285 237 190 181 147 168 198 242 250 262 267 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 149 150 150 147 146 141 134 129 125 122 123 125 129 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 67 68 71 70 67 62 60 55 51 46 42 39 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 21 34 43 51 35 19 -6 -12 -11 -10 -6 -8 -6 -7 -12 200 MB DIV 59 30 27 31 17 12 20 17 -2 5 3 -11 -24 -15 -11 -22 -18 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 5 3 2 0 2 2 3 2 1 4 3 7 5 0 LAND (KM) 1571 1670 1771 1875 1983 2207 2416 2364 2034 1750 1491 1179 819 439 152 376 534 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.1 13.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.0 123.0 124.2 125.4 128.3 131.0 133.7 136.6 139.1 141.4 144.2 147.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 15 17 19 19 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 12 12 12 11 12 14 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 5 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 28. 29. 28. 29. 25. 21. 17. 13. 12. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 121.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 EIGHT 07/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 24.5% 23.7% 16.7% 12.9% 21.3% 21.0% 12.4% Logistic: 6.8% 26.5% 21.2% 11.8% 9.8% 18.2% 19.0% 28.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.1% 1.7% 0.4% 1.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.3% 21.4% 15.5% 9.7% 7.9% 14.1% 13.8% 13.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 8.0% 10.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 EIGHT 07/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##