* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 40 44 46 49 53 55 55 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 40 44 46 49 53 55 55 55 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 40 39 38 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 20 17 14 12 12 11 15 14 15 18 24 27 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 2 -1 -3 0 6 3 4 5 0 -1 4 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 56 43 49 55 54 94 117 140 168 177 200 200 225 238 260 253 270 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 128 128 125 127 119 115 111 113 113 113 115 118 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 124 124 125 121 123 113 108 103 106 105 107 108 110 113 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 83 83 85 83 80 73 67 62 61 59 57 56 54 48 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 64 62 66 66 62 66 47 43 35 22 10 -7 -46 -69 -119 200 MB DIV 121 95 80 80 70 43 -4 -10 -8 -13 6 19 3 8 -5 3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 1 2 3 6 11 14 16 15 LAND (KM) 795 937 1006 1061 1094 1181 1328 1514 1708 1892 2086 2029 1960 1943 2007 2131 2148 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.2 12.6 13.9 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.8 25.1 25.8 26.4 26.9 28.2 29.8 31.6 33.4 35.1 36.9 38.6 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 10 12 12 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 5 3 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 24. 28. 30. 30. 30. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 23.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.0% 7.9% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 12.2% 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 10.3% 4.0% 2.5% 0.3% 1.0% 3.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/06/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 33 36 40 44 46 49 53 55 55 55 57 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 44 47 51 53 53 53 55 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 29 33 37 39 42 46 48 48 48 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 22 26 30 32 35 39 41 41 41 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT